Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum Predictions

Tomorrow (Sat. June 18, 2011) is Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum the 2nd round in the HW Grand Prix. I’m looking forward to Barnett, Griggs, and Cavalcante. It should be an interesting night of fights.

So far as we know, everyone has passed their pre-fight drug test. I forgot to check the over/under on Barnett testing positive. How nervous do you think Strikeforc/UFC was when Barnett walked up to take his piss test? I’m guessing there was and alternate in the next room taking his piss test just in case.

With out further adieu, here are my picks and a lil commentary.

Main card (Showtime)

Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

Overeem is the obvious favorite. His incredible striking skills and behemoth like size make him the obvious favorite, despite his lack of consistent MMA fights over the past 4 years. Sure, he fought K-1, and won the Grand Prix (a huge accomplishment in itself), however, he has had 6 MMA bouts since 2008. Do the math, high caliber champions don’t have this sparse of a record. Werdum, on the other hand is coming off of a submission win over Fedor. A feat in itself, however, he has not fought since that victory. Not a good way to stay at the top of the pile, since when is inactivity good for a fighter? It has been 12 months since his bout with Fedor. That is just plain bad training practice. Because of the long Layoff, I’m gonna have to pick Overeem to win by KO/TKO.

Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal bout: Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers

Once again, there is a clear cut favorite heading into this fight. Barnett is considered the man most likely to win the Grand Prix and challenge Overeem for the HW title (and possibly then the UFC HW Champ). This brings me to a question, why are all of the HW’s in Strikeforce coming off long layoffs? Barnett has not fought since July of 2010, almost a year! We know Barnett has good (possibly great) hands and a good ground game, not to mention some WWE/F wrestling skills (see post for info) Rogers has suspect skills. We haven’t seem him do much other than through bombs, hand out KO’s , gas out or get KO’d. We don’t know what his ground game looks like, if he has addressed his cardio issues, if the long layoff since his last bout (with Warpath, October 2010. not a glowing endorsement of high caliber talent, going the distance with warpath says some things, not good things, but things) have had good or bad effects on his mental game. Based upon his experience, caliber of previous talent and his need (requirement) to have a spectacular showing (in hopes of repairing the relationship with the UFC and specifically Dana White) I’m gonna give this one to Barnett by KO/TKO.

Lightweight bout: K.J. Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal

This is an interesting match up, Noons has solid boxing skills, a good wrestling base and stamina to go 5 rounds at full speed. Masvidal is one of the few people to go the distance with Paul Daley, losing a controversial decision in the process. He has boxing acumen (both Noons and Masvidal have boxed professionally) and good ground skills. This bought could be the #1 contender bought for Gilbert Melendez’s LW title, which makes it that much more intriguing. I’m giving Noons the win by decision. I feel his boxing will be crisper and cleaner. I do however hope Masvidal wins.

Heavyweight bout: Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson

I think these two are evenly matched. sure Monson has the experience and conspiracy theories on his side (plus two HW titles from regional promotions won in April 2011), never the less, I still think it’s gonna be close. Daniel Cormier by Decision.

Heavyweight bout: Valentijn Overeem vs. Chad Griggs

V. Overeem is the (not as accomplished) brother of Overeem (the Strikeforce HW Champ). I’ve only seen a few of his fights, and despite his skill set and training partners, I gotta give the edge to Griggs. Griggs has won 10 of his 11 bouts, all by KO/TKO, sure he’s still untested in deep waters, and this is the biggest stage he’s fought on to date, with all that I still give this one to Griggs by KO/TKO (now that I said that it will end in a decision)

I only have one prediction on the Preliminary Card, because I don’t know anything about any of the other fighters…yet.

Preliminary Card (HDNet)

Lightweight bout: Gesias Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox

Cavalcante has had a rocky few years, his last bout was a decision (controversial) loss to Josh Thompson. Wilcox is on a 6 fight win streak. I’m a fan of both fighters, this one is hard to pick. I’m gonna go with Wilcox. I think his wrestling will be the key to a decision victory. ( I do hope Cavalcante pulls out the win)

That’s it!

Anthony Dominguez