UFC on Fox 2: Full Fight Card and Predictions

The UFC returns to Fox! It may be the second UFC broadcast on the actual network Fox channel, but it’s the first time we’re seeing more than one fight brought to you live, on network TV, whether you have cable, satellite or one of those antenna adapter boxes! Everyone should be able to get the main card on Fox!

The UFC has put together another great card and we should see just about everything we love about MMA in this event in Chicago! There’s strikers, submission specialists, wrestlers… and a wide variety of weight classes… not to mention not one but TWO title-fight eliminator bouts!

Let’s get into the matches (predicted outcomes in green):

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

  • Middleweight bout: United States Chris Camozzi vs. United States Dustin Jacoby
    Jacoby’s coming off a loss to Clifford Starks in UFC 137 last October in Jacoby’s UFC debut. But up until then he went 6-0, with five of those wins coming by KO/TKO and the other a submission. Chalk his loss (and only pro bout to go to decision) to Octagon™ jitters? Chris Camozzi is familiar to TUF fans for his brief cameo during season 11 where he won his way into the house, but broke his jaw in the process. Camozzi’s got the experience, posting a nice 15-5 record, although he also lost at UFC 137, to Francis Carmont, also by unanimous decision. After being brought back to the UFC only to lose his first fight back, Camozzi should have the fire and experience to beat Jacoby.
    If the fight ends in the first round, Jacoby will win, but it won’t: Camozzi, submission, 3rd round.

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV)

  • Heavyweight bout: United States Joey Beltran vs. United States Lavar Johnson
    Joey Beltran has apparently made good on his crack about dropping the burritos and is in great shape which is really bad news for Strikeforce heavyweight Lavar Johnson. Johnson has 13 of his 15 wins by KO but the effectiveness of his power should be reduced by Beltran’s uncanny ability to absorb punishment without collapsing. Johnson is coming off of two losses in a row and as he crosses over to the UFC, there’s a good chance that the dreaded Octagon™ jitters play with his head while Beltran sits in the pocket and hammers him and gets the decision.
  • Lightweight bout: United States Michael Johnson vs. United States Shane Roller
    Michael Johnson impressed as a finalist on season 12 of TUF, where he showed his power and followed his loss to Johnathan Brookins with an impressive TKO of Eddie Faaloloto only to taste defeat to the heel hook of Paul Sass at UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson last October. He was slated to face Cody McKenzie but after McKenzie got injured during training, WEC vet Shane Roller stepped up and will provide a similar, if more well-rounded opponent for Johnson. Both guys have the same amount of pro fights, with Roller having one more win and having faced a higher level of competition, Roller wins by submission in the second round.
  • Featherweight bout: Brazil Charles Oliveira vs. United States Eric Wisely
    Oliveira went 12-0 in Brazil before signing with the UFC and winning his first two bouts by submission. Recent losses against Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone are on his record, but you most likely know him for his “fight of the night” match against Nik Lentz last June when he submitted Lentz with a rear naked choke, only to have the fight reviewed by the PA State Athletic Commission and the result overturned because of a knee that Oliveira landed on Lentz illegally, so the fight was declared a no contest. Wisely is making his UFC debut, but comes to the promotion with 19 wins in his 25 pro bouts including two wins over Hermes Franca. Oliveira should introduce Wisely to the mat and win by submission in the first round.
  • Featherweight bout: United States Cub Swanson vs. United States George Roop
    Cub Swanson had a nice run in the WEC, earning three “fight of the night” awards and only losing to Jens Pulver (the 2007 Jens), Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes before coming to the UFC when it absorbed the smaller promotion. His only UFC bout was on the prelim card of the last UFC on Fox and he lost to Ricardo Lamas by arm triangle choke. Roop came up primarily in Arizona’s Rage in the Cage promotion, through TUF into the UFC, then to the WEC before bring brought back to the UFC. He fought Leonard Garcia to a draw, beat Jung Chan-Sung with a head kick and is coming off a split decision loss to Hatsu Hioki. Room should take a tough decision over Swanson.
  • Heavyweight bout: United States Mike Russow vs. Norway John-Olav Einemo
    The second heavyweight bout of the day features Mike Russow coming off a win last March and after almost a yearlong layoff since his scheduled October match against Dave Herman was cancelled when Herman tested positive for Marijuana. John-Olav Einemo is an impressive fighter with losses to Herman as well as Fabricio Werdum, but an otherwise nice 6-2 record. He’ll face a tough test with Russow but Einemo will emerge victorious, winning by submission in the first round.
  • Lightweight bout: United States Evan Dunham vs. United States Nik Lentz
    Lentz joined the UFC in 2009, after earning a 16-3-1 record and winning his first bout. In the UFC, he has a 5-1-1 record, with another bout ending in no contest as described above. He wrestled in high school and in college switched to MMA, training alongside Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk. Although starting his career with a couple of KOs, Lentz is primarily a submission wrestler and will have his hands full with a talented Evan Dunham. Dunham is coming off a win against Shamar Bailey last September after his only two losses (to Sean Sherk and Melvin Guillard). Had he been coming off the losses, I might be concerned, but coming off a confidence-boosting win (even if it was a decision), Evan Dunham can grind out a split decision against Lentz.

Main Card (Fox)

  • Middleweight bout: Brazil Demian Maia vs. United States Chris Weidman
    Finally, we’re watching Fox and while the last event was heavy on the biographical films and the follow-up commentary, with three bouts to air, Fox won’t be as free to spend the time. Look for some commentary and then right into the fights. Maia is one of the most respected BJJ practitioners, so talented that he can make up for a promising-but-not-quite there yet stand-up skill. Maia’s only losses were to Nate Marquardt, Mark Muñoz and some guy named Anderson Silva. Chris Weidman has a challenge in front of him. Weidman’s a talented wrestler, with a perfect 7-0 professional record, including a recent submission win over Tom Lawlor at UFC 139 last November. He is more well-rounded than Maia, but Maia will give Weidman his first loss by submission in the third round.
  • Middleweight bout: United States Chael Sonnen vs. England Michael Bisping
    Jason Miller took Bisping down and held him down for most of a round when they met in the Finale to the last TUF on Spike. Sonnen… is significantly better at it than Mayhem. If Sonnen can get Bisping down, and I don’t think he’s met anyone he can’t take down, it’ll be a painful but short night for Bisping. Even standing, Sonnen can get Bisping against the cage and punish him. The only hope Bisping has is to keep the action in the center of the Octagon™ and box. He won’t be able to do that, and Chael Sonnen will take him down and win the fight, TKO. And then Sonnen will take the opportunity to sit in the press conference and make a show of considering his next opponent(s), until someone reminds him that the actual Anderson Silva is healing and getting ready for their fight.
    NOTE: Winner faces Anderson Silva for the title.
  • Light Heavyweight bout: United States Rashad Evans vs. United States Phil Davis
    Which brings us to our Main Event: Evans vs. Davis. If there’s ever been a bout more likely to have one of its fighters get injured on the walk-in, this is it. Not because either of the two are that showy, but because this match-up has been a long time coming. To hear them going at each other at the press conference, you just know that both guys are going to bring it! Evans is quick and elusive, but Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis, at 9-0, including wins over Brian Stann and Lil Nog, presents a valid challenge. Both men are wrestlers and both have reason to want to beat up the other guy. Rashad is the more well-rounded and experienced fights, but Phil Davis will prove he’s the better wrestler and pound Evans out, TKO, round three.

So there you have it: Sonnen moves forward to face Silva for the middleweight title and Davis, winning convincingly, moves on to face Jon Jones for the light heavyweight title. (I have a feeling as to how those fights will go, but that is a prediction for another time…)

Enjoy the fights. Don’t forget to check out the facebook prelim before turning on Fuel. This is a card worthy of PPV, brought to all of us for free on Fox! Sit back, pour yourself a shot and get ready! Cheers!